Global Trends


Response Paper 1

This paper has two parts. First, please choose one of the five future scenarios in the Global Trends 2040: A More Contested Future (see below). Read through all the scenarios carefully so that you can gain an understanding of the main aspects of each modeled scenario, paying particular attention to the one you want to write about. Also, be sure to familiarize yourself with the five similar scenarios in the 2021 IPCC report (see below). Second, please use the following questions to frame your response (about 1000 words/4-5 pages):

  • What are the main differences and similarities between your scenario and the others? Compare and contrast.
  • Which of the IPCC’s scenarios best matches the Global Trends scenario you chose? In what ways?
  • What problems are solved in the projected model and what problems are aggravated?
  • What causes, if any, are attributed to the model? How does the Renaissance of Democracies happen, for example.
  • What is the relationship between the environment and the future? What role has COVID-19 played in shaping the next 20 years?
  • What do you think is realistic to expect in the future? Which scenario do you think is most likely, and why?

NIC Global Trends 2040:

  • Renaissance of Democracies
  • A World Adrift
  • Competitive Coexistence
  • Separate Silos
  • Tragedy and Mobilization

IPCC scenarios:

  • SSP1 – 1.9: “taking the green road” global temp + 1.5C
  • SSP1 – 2.6: “net zero emissions after 2050” global temp + 1.8C
  • SSP2 – 4.5: “middle of the road” global temp + 2.7C
  • SSP3 – 7.0: “nationalism is resurgent and countries retreat from international cooperation” global temp +3.6C
  • SSP5 – 8.5_ “humanity … continues to make things worse” global temp + 4.4C

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