Climate Change Systems Modeling and Policy Brief

Run some climate change forecast simulations using C-ROADS, then incorporate your results into a policy brief. The simulation model can be accessed at https://c-roads.climateinteractive.org

Policy Brief
• Limit your text to three double-spaced pages for the entire assignment, with 12-pt Times New Roman font & 1” margins, so you need to avoid extraneous background material
• Do not turn in graphs or screenshots of your simulation results—just a 3-pg Word doc. Instead, be sure that you describe your final scenario in the Global Policy section in sufficient detail so that the results can be checked. This requires that you define the specific simulation parameter values and assumptions.
• Write your answers to the questions below as paragraphs in essay form, using complete sentences. However, you may bullet lists of main points or evidence from your simulations that support your policy recommendations or list different policy recommendations.
• Your policy brief should not be based on outside reading, just your own critical thinking and arguments, based on the results of your C_ROADS model simulations.

The goal of your policy recommendations is to make the largest contribution possible to reducing global warming by the year 2100 within reasons:
• Your recommendations should result in no more than a +2.5oC by 2100; and
• should be ambitious yet realistic. Most importantly, note that policies cannot be implemented immediately, so if you propose annual increases make sure the starting time of this action fits with implementing the policy. However, anticipate that your recommendations can become policy and implemented within a few years!
• Your policies can be in the form of financial or other incentives, legal sanctions, financial penalties, or other disincentives.

Your policy brief will have four sections, so use these section titles and enter your own text under each:

Background
This should be a short paragraph that frames the arguments for the next sections and states the overall goal of your recommended policies. Recognizing that lowering atmospheric GHG emissions is a global public good, you are arguing for policies that would have the largest impact on reducing global warming and its associated catastrophic effects. So, your policy recommendations should not be a list of all possible actions but focused on a limited few–what your modeling simulations and chosen scenario have shown to be the most necessary and effective to lower the stock of atmospheric GHGs. Assume the readers of your brief understand and accept the science behind the models.

Global Policy
In this section, present the main findings from your modeling, focusing on the scenario you have chosen for reducing atmospheric GHGs. These can be in the form of bullet points that present distinct evidence from your simulations, highlighting what you concluded to be the most impactful scenario for what regions and for what changes:
What rate of change (and starting date, = emissions peak year) in what region(s) is/are necessary to constrain global warming to your target? What drivers of warming should be the focus of this: reducing GHG emissions? Preventing deforestation (or promoting afforestation)? Or policies that alter baseline assumptions, such as reducing population growth or economic growth?

Use the 6-region dashboard for your exploration of global warming scenarios. This is the default and can be checked under the Simulation menu. This menu, under Assumptions, also allows you to click on the baseline index to examine how different driving factors can influence expected warming as you move the slider to different values. Note that your chosen scenario—your pathway(s) for lowering the forecasted global temperature increase—may be a single major pathway or some combination. That is, it might target lowering GHG emissions somewhere AND some other contribution(s).

End this section by recommending one or more policies that can be taken by international agencies such as the UN, World Bank or World Trade Organization.

Developed Region Policy
Now, propose a policy that a developed country/region might implement to achieve the specific actions you have identified above. That is, what might the US, EU, or block of other developed countries do to promote these actions? Note that you should maintain focus on the most effective actions you identified, where they should be targeted, and how developed countries can contribute to this. Therefore, this may be directed to actions that target reduced GHG emissions (or other driving factors) not in their own region/country but elsewhere in the world.

Other Developing Region
Similarly, propose a policy or policies useful for a large developing country or region to pursue. Target those in the “other developing country category” and NOT China or India. You might usefully explore how different factors under Assumptions (from the Simulations menu) influence projected GHG emissions or other factors (use the Graphs menu) in order to suggest one or more key policies.