Military Hypothesis

Using information taken directly from the Scenario (to include the Historical Overview, Primary Actors, Military Units, or Scenario Traffic), develop three pieces of evidence “supporting” each hypothesis and three pieces of evidence “refuting” each hypothesis listed below.

1. Hypotheses. In order to manage a class of 20+ students through the exercise, the possible outcomes have been categorized into three hypotheses which will be used for the remainder of the ACH exercise. This means you will no longer be using the hypotheses you developed in Step #1; from this point forward, please use the following three hypotheses

H1. Diplomatic Solution. The PRC and Taiwan will solve their differences without having to resort to political, economic, or military coercion beyond what has already been displayed. This solution includes direct or multi-lateral negotiations between China and Taiwan.

H2. Limited Intervention. This hypothesis includes threats of political, economic, or military action against Taiwan in order to coerce Taiwanese politicians (or the Taiwanese people) into adopting pro-PRC positions. Examples of direct coercive actions by the PRC include naval or economic blockades, violating Taiwanese airspace, creating a military or economic “crisis,” the bombardment or occupation of Taiwan’s smaller islands (Green, the Pescadores, Kinman, and/or Matsu), and isolated acts of subversion or sabotage.

H3. Direct Attack. This hypothesis includes direct military action against the island of Taiwan and its 23 million inhabitants. Examples of Direct Attack include the firing of CSS-6 missiles, aerial/ naval bombardment, amphibious/airborne assaults, and cruise missile attacks against Taiwan. The objective of a Direct Attack is to either destroy or occupy Taiwan.

2. Identifying Evidence. Evidence needs to be clear, concise, and come directly from the Historical Overview, Primary Actors, Military Units, or Scenario Traffic. To keep this as simple as possible, keep the following in mind:

a. Do not include personal opinions or assessments.

b. Start with the most recent information (i.e. start at 20 days prior to the election) and work your way back.

c. Be specific. Generalizations such as “the PLA has mobilized a large force of various units, including infantry, aircraft, and surface and sub-surface navy” should be replaced with specific evidence such as “PLAAF B-6 bombers were being uploaded with air-to-surface munitions” General evidence will lead to general assessments which in the end, will be of little to no value.

d. Only use each piece of evidence once. The scenario was intentionally designed with enough evidence to support each hypothesis.

e. You must identify three pieces of evidence for and against each hypothesis.