Valuation Forecast

Overview of the stock analysis section. (2 – 3 paragraphs)

Each of the sections 1) Pricing, 2) Performance, and 3) Value Forecast may include charts created by you (not image copied from website). Use the references – Figure label and include a Table of Figures. Each section should include discussion on

(a) company results,

(b) Industry or competitor results (may choose one main competitor), and

(c) Market results (gurufocus has market results). https://www.gurufocus.com/financials/ISCA

1) Pricing – (one graph)

2 paragraphs for each of the following:

Price – describe method of growth

1. Max / Min closing for each year
2. Average closing for each year
3. High / Low Trade for last day of each year

Earnings Per Share – discussion of row 14 including average, growth, competitor and market (market growth over 5 years -0.7% – gurufocus.com)

***Dividends Per Share – no dividends (growth in EPS indicates no dividends because of reinvesting) (decline in EPS indicates no dividends because no profit)

Book Value Per Share – row 16

**Rows from Valuation Worksheet completed in class

2) Stock Performance – (one graph)

2 paragraphs for each of the following:

Price Earnings Ratio – row 18

***Dividend Yield – row 21

Payout Ratio

Return on Equity – row 25

Financial Leverage ratios can be obtained at: http://financials.morningstar.com/ratios/r.html?t=UA

3) Valuation Forecast (one graph)

Complete and discuss a value forecast based on earnings and based on dividends.

(3 paragraphs – covering each of the following bullets)

• Price forecast for next year (Market Value). High and low forecast. % Change from 2016 (or last year / quarter)
• Book value forecast for next year – calculate using row 16
• Likelihood of consistency in forecasts based on trends (likely consistent or likely overvalued/undervalued)

Model based on earnings:
Average high P/E x estimated Year 6 EPS:				19.52	x	3.40	=	$66.34	(high valuation estimate)
Average low P/E x estimated Year 6 EPS:				15.46	x	3.40	=	$52.54	(low valuation estimate)

(Forecast – 2016) / 2016 = % change next year

Shareholder equity / number shares outstanding

5 year average growth rate * 2016 Book Value Per Share

Last year growth rate = (2016-2015)/2015 * 2016 Book Value Per Share

4) Stock Analysis Summary

2 – 3 paragraphs summarizing the above findings.

References

Last Name, F. M. (Year). Article Title. Journal Title, Pages From – To.

Last Name, F. M. (Year). Book Title. City Name: Publisher Name.